USA VS. CANADIAN HOMEBUILDERS:WHO'S WINNING?

Well, that didn’t take long. Just when U.S. homebuilders thought they had a little breathing room, reality came knocking—and it’s wearing steel-toed boots. The National Association of Home Builders just reported a five-point drop in builder confidence, slamming it down to its lowest level in five months. Translation? The market is shifting, and not in a way that benefits buyers.

Let’s break this down. Builders are rattled, and not just because mortgage rates are still hovering around “you’ve-gotta-be-kidding-me” levels. No, this time it’s the looming threat of tariffs on imported goods—think steel, aluminum, and basically anything that makes a house a house. These price hikes aren’t coming out of the builders’ pockets. They’re getting tacked right onto your future mortgage. You were already struggling with affordability? Try an extra $17K to $22K on that price tag.

And then there’s the resale market. It’s waking up, and that means buyers suddenly have options beyond cookie-cutter new builds. That spring surge of listings? It’s coming. If builders don’t adjust—whether that means better incentives, price cuts, or just getting real about supply and demand—they’re going to be sitting on a lot of unsold drywall.

Meanwhile, in Canada? Different circus, same clowns. The housing market up north is still gasping for air after getting choked out by rate hikes. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation is clinging to the idea of a 2025 rebound, but with the possibility of tariffs jacking up inflation, that “recovery” might be more of a crawl. Throw in municipal fees that have ballooned by tens of thousands (especially in places like Toronto), and you’ve got another affordability crisis brewing.

So, where does that leave buyers? Stuck. U.S. buyers are dealing with rising costs, reluctant builders, and a mortgage market that isn’t cutting anyone a break. Canadian buyers are waiting for rates to chill out while developers juggle red tape and bloated costs.

Bottom line? The housing market—both in the U.S. and Canada—isn’t a buyer’s paradise anytime soon. But if you’re paying attention, if you know where to look and how to negotiate, there’s always a way to make the market work for you. Just don’t expect the industry to do you any favors.